There is a plethora of data, graphs, and charts.
Those provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration are highly regarded. Of all the information that is available, the chart that currently stands out most is the one comparing crude oil stocks to the 5-year range. The gray area is the 5-year range of what crude oil stocks have been; the blue line is the weekly supply.
Going back a couple of years, the weekly supply was higher than the 5-year range had been. (If you remember, 2020 was kind of a big deal.) Moving forward to present day, the weekly supply is trailing the 5-year range. Granted, this chart is missing the demand curve. Nonetheless, given what you currently know and predict, do you have any reason to believe that demand is going to drop off anytime soon to such a level that there will no longer be an immediate supply concern? This is why we're seeing $100 oil. We're currently at 26 days of supply.
Not too long ago, several energy executives were requested to testify to a panel regarding high gasoline prices. One of the points frequently brought up is that with excess profits, companies are returning that money back to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks instead of drilling more wells. Reminder: the executives are not the owners of the companies; the shareholders are. So, if the shareholders want their investment back, they have every right to request it.
“Energy executives say that sustained pressure from investors to return more cash to shareholders is the primary factor holding back investment in growth.”
- ExxonMobil — the U.S. oil giant said it would triple its share repurchases, but will keep oil-field spending at a modest pace.
- Chevron — the company has paid out $4 billion to investors in dividends and share repurchases this year.
- France's TotalEnergies — it could double its share buybacks this quarter.
- Cost inflation is also deterring production growth as shortages of equipment and labor have become widespread in the U.S. shale patch.
The tech tip you need to know: pivot tables.
The pivot table takes a few minutes to learn to set up and get basic utility, but it may take hours of practice to get all the use out of it. Have you ever had a spreadsheet of leases and wanted to know how many leases in which county have which status? You could use spreadsheet filters to individually select the counties, count the number in each one, count the status for each one, and then create a summary of the math you did. Or you could use a pivot table and create that summary instantly.
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